The IPL Winners Market

Nobody expected Rajasthan to win the IPL last year. Bookies and punters alike made the fatal error of looking to see which team had the biggest names and making them favourites. Everyone is much wiser this time. The distinction between world class cricketers and world class cricketers who can play Twenty20 has become clear. And the importance of captaincy, fielding and teamwork is now fully appreciated. Certainly the current odds in the winners market appear to make more sense than they did last time round.

It is hard to argue, for example, with the presence of Delhi and Chennai at the top of the market. Delhi's only weakness last year was in the middle order and they have moved to plug that gap with some canny acquisitions. And Chennai came within a hair's breadth of winning the inaugural competition and are even stronger this year.

But we should still be wary of taking too short a price on any team. With so many quality players around, the biggest problem franchises have is not to find potential matchwinners but to put them together in the best possible combination. Pretty much any of the eight teams could put a tournament winning run at any time.

So, whilst I couldn't argue with those who want to lump on Delhi or Chennai, I am more interested in backing a couple at bigger odds.

Mumbai had a dreadful start last time but recovered and missed out on the semis by just one point. Being without Tendulkar for half the tournament was a blow as was the loss of Harbhajan, one of the best limited overs bowlers in the world. Both are going to be around for the full six weeks this time. They may have lost Robin Uthappa, but they have added the classy J P Duminy and the exciting Mohammad Ashraful. Dwayne Bravo, Ryan McClaren and Graham Napier are a useful trio of all-rounders. Perhaps their best signing is the world's best left armer, Zaheer Khan, who leads a fast bowling attack that includes Kyle Mills, Lasith Malinga and Dilhara Fernando. With Jayasuriya chipping in with the ball, they look a solid team and will be unaffected by the internatoinal call-ups that are likely to decimate some of the other squads. At 11-2 they make plenty of appeal.

For the Rajasthan Royals, much has been made of the loss of Shane Watson and Sohail Tanvir. But they are a shrewd franchise and have made some sound acquisitions. Shaun Tait should get his share of wickets and Tyron Henderson and Shane Harwood are solid Twenty20 specialists. But above all, their success last year was founded not individuals but on teamwork and the inspirational leadership of Shane Warne. He was innovative on the field and, together with Snape and Berry, produced an admirable team spirit off the field. Whereas some franchises seemed to make a sow's ear out of a silk purse, Warne got the best out of some unheralded and unheard of Indian players. Perhaps 18 year old quick Kamran Khan might be another such player to benefit from the Warne magic this year. 17-2 about the tournament holders is an insult and should certainly be taken.

Wagers

Mumbai Indians to win IPL 2009 @ 11-2 (Various companies)
Rajasthan Royals to win IPL 2009 @ 17-2 (Boylesports)